Trading
No 2005 rally for the greenback, say analysts
WASHINGTON – The dollar is unlikely to see a revival in 2005, and could weaken further against Asian currencies, according to bank analysts.
Review of 2004 - April: Banks draw EU25 battle plans
LONDON & FRANKFURT – Euro convergence may still be years away for the 10 new member states joining the European Union (EU), but far-sighted banks and brokers were already drawing up their FX battle plans for the new Europe in April. Deutsche Bank, HSBC,…
Euro gains status as reserve
FRANFURT – Buying by some of Eastern Europe’s and Africa’s central banks is buoying the euro as the central bankers come to the realisation the currency is here to stay, according to a leading forex fund manager.
Dollar’s fall catches out FX rate forecasters over three months
The extent to which the market has been surprised by the extent of the dollar’s fall over the last quarter is demonstrated by the FX Week three-month forecasts. Three forecasters saw a divergence of more than 13% from the actual spot rate on euro/dollar…
Asian currencies resilient
HONG KONG – Asia’s currencies have proved resilient after the devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami disaster that struck the region last week, said analysts.
Introducing FX into fixed-income portfolios
David Durrant, chief currency strategist for the Americas at Julius Baer Asset Management, says a simple use of cross trades exploiting different central banks’ positions in the economic cycle shows that it is not necessary to use exotic structures
Cable – getting nervous about $2?
Karen Griffith, chief currency analyst at Independent II Research, says technical and fundamental indicators point to sterling well above the $2 mark
Dollar weakening, but for how long?
Dollar weakness will continue into the first quarter of 2005 under current US policies, says Marios Maratheftis, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. But market volatility may change the Fed's stance
Banking on a e/$ breakout
Saxo Bank and Deutsche Bank attained the top two spots in the three-month forecasts this week, with accurate positions on euro/dollar. Deutsche Bank came closest to picking the extent of the euro's strength against the greenback.
Asia continues to rally against dollar
HONG KONG -- Asian currencies are undervalued and will continue to strengthen next year against a weak dollar, according to market participants.
The American double-accrual forward
With expected further euro appreciation, EUR/USD forwards are trading at a premium. Here, Anna Leung, head of corporate treasury marketing at HSBC, shows a way to get access to future hedging at a lower cost
Dollar recovery set to continue
Dollar recovery is likely to continue this week as short-covering and profit-taking extend further, according to Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX research at Calyon, London
Conservative approach to further dollar weakness
A one-year 'leveraged ratchet forward' may help hedgers looking for a conservative strategy who are expecting a lower EUR/USD next year, say Eric Ohayon, European head of FX structuring, and Chris Weiss, FX structurer, at Bank of America in London
Dollar weakening underestimated
A view that the Japanese authorities would intervene to protect the level of the dollar led much of the market to underestimate the extent to which the greenback would weaken against the unit, according to Ray Attrill, director of research at 4Cast. The…
Dollar/won move boosts options market activity
HONG KONG -- Volumes in the forex options markets have surged off the back of the rapid move in the dollar/won over recent weeks, say analysts.
BTM lead in Japanese forex slipping
TOKYO -- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTM) remains the top Japanese foreign exchange house in the country, with revenues for the first half of the Japanese fiscal year ending September 30 totalling ¥36.1 billion.
Soft knock-in knock-out forward
The soft knock-in knock-out forward presents a new way to look at knock-ins and knock-outs, taking away the negative impact of untimely barrier events says Enrico Ferrante, senior structurer at Calyon in Paris
Swissie sways FX sentiment
While the euro/dollar pair has continued to grab the headlines over the past month for its unpredictability, it is the Swiss franc/greenback pairing that has caused forecasters the most difficulties.
CLS adds four more currencies
HONG KONG -- CLS is to bring four new currency pairs onto its platform: the New Zealand dollar, the South African rand, the Hong Kong dollar and the Korean won.
Dollar to plummet further in 2005
Continued dollar weakness in 2005 will fuel European and Japanese currency strength and damage export demand, according to Tony Norfield, ABN Amro's global head of FX strategy in London
Intervention will not halt dollar weakness
SEOUL – The dollar's dive against Asian currencies to record lows is unlikely to be halted by large-scale intervention, according to analysts.