Trading
No election fears for GBP
The most recent UK election update shows sterling political risks diminishing further, says Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London
Selling £/$ at favourable rates to the forward
UBS Currency Management Advisory Service suggests using a ratio callable forward to sell GBP/USD at more favourable rates than the prevailing market forward rates
French referendum ups volatility
PARIS – The French referendum on the European Union (EU) constitution, set for May 29, has already affected euro trading, and continuing uncertainty will lead to further volatility.
Yen to take over as main driver
Australia and New Zealand Bank’s (ANZ) loyalty towards continued dollar strength has paid off, as it tops this week’s one-month ranking.
Divergent views on greenback
Pronet Analytics is maintaining its aggressive 12-month view on the dollar because it believes its recent recovery will end soon, said Karen Griffith, chief currency strategist in London.
Risk appetite and FX positioning
Richard Franulovich, currency analyst for Westpac in New York, says weaker US data is likely to lead to a weaker dollar
Diverging views over renminbi
BEIJING – Banks have divergent views on the likely size, extent and timing of a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi (CNY).
Activity set to soar in Romanian leu
BUCHAREST – Interest in trading the Romanian leu is picking up, as the country opens to foreign investment and gears up for entry into the European Union.
IFX launches forex fund
LONDON – IFX Capital Management, a division of IFX Markets, will launch the Zenith Currency Fund this week.
A cheaper way to take a bearish stance
Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London, suggests using an anticipated short-term recovery to significantly reduce the cost of entering a longer-term bearish strategy on USD/JPY
New investors spur 2004 forex growth
GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT – An increase in FX trade by almost a quarter last year was largely driven by a new class of professional FX investors.
When size matters
Political risk is not a factor sterling has had to contend with recently, but the UK's general election on May 5 might see this change, says Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Calyon in London
Lloyds wins out on dollar decline
Lloyds TSB tops the 12-month ranking again as it maintains its view that the dollar will continue to decline given the US deficit situation.
What is the fate of the greenback?
Corporates need to be aware of the likely fate of the dollar. Simon Miles (below), head of dealing at London-based foreign exchange brokerage CorporateFX, points to economic policies leading to another bubble, and says the authorities need to do more to…
Reasons for rand depreciation
Tania Kotsos, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC, highlights the reasons why the South African rand should weaken over the next 12–18 months
Ruble and NOK benefit from high oil price
OSLO – The strong oil price has led to strength in currencies such as the Norwegian krone and the Russian ruble, as exporting nations benefit from strong revenue flows.
Behind the dollar rebound
MG Financial tops this week's three-month YTD forecast by looking for dollar-corrective moves, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial in New York.
BarCap forecasts mid-year RMB peg change
BEIJING – Barclays Capital is forecasting a mid-year change to the renminbi (RMB) peg, the bank announced at its global FX conference in the Chinese capital last Friday.
Korean banks report mixed FX results
SEOUL – Korean banks reported strong revenues from their FX business in 2004, with one bank seeing a rise of more than 40%.
INR – everything is relative
The INR’s over-extended valuation against the Reserve Bank of India’s REER implicit policy anchor continues. This over-extension is looking anomalous against the continued backdrop of Asian FX selling. Claudio Piron, Asian FX strategist at JP Morgan in…
Rabobank’s bullish dollar view pays dividends
Rabobank came top of the three-month forecast thanks to a bullish view on the dollar. The Dutch bank posted a forecast of 1.28 for the euro/dollar pair, slightly below the actual rate of 1.2923. Only one other bank forecast the greenback to be stronger…
EM currency volatility to continue
CENTRAL EUROPE – Volatility in emerging market FX has surged as market participants gauge the impact of improving US fundamentals, which resulted in a 25 basis point rate hike last week, according to analysts.
4Cast rides out dollar corrections
Chris Furness, senior currencies strategist at 4Cast in London, says resisting the temptation to chase prevailing spot rates into the longer term allowed 4Cast to top the one-month and 12-month forecasts.
Keeping a steady ringgit
Deeds speak stronger than words when it comes to the Malaysian ringgit, says Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, emerging markets strategist at Barclays Capital in Singapore