Towards risk-free emerging markets investment

Background: Economists, analysts and strategists have searched for the Holy Grail to forecast exchange rates for decades. The widely accepted view is that predicting actual rates consistently is very difficult, if not impossible. The results from most models indicate that they are no better at forecasting exchange rates than simply assuming that the best prediction of tomorrow's rate is today's rate. Success has been found, however, in developing models for predicting future direction in