Trading
Are consensus forecasts useful?
Analysts differ over the tools they use to put together their currency forecasts. Some rely on macro fundamentals, economic data forecasts or flow data, while others rely purely on technical indicators.
GFI launches new FX option data service
NEW YORK – Broker and market data firm GFI Group has launched a new currency options historical data service for quantitative experts, risk managers and middle-office employees at banks active in the FX markets.
SARB to cut before year-end?
Royal Bank of Canada expects a 50bp rate cut in South Africa to 7.00 before the end of the year, explains Tania Kotsos, senior emerging markets strategist at the bank in London
EBS gets foothold in China
SHANGHAI – Spot broker EBS has signed up Bank of Montreal as the first bank in mainland China to use EBS Spot, its spot broking platform. Through the agreement, Bank of Montreal (BMo) will be able to trade spot FX from its offices in Beijing, Guangzhou…
BIS paints bright future for FX
BASEL – The huge growth in daily turnover in the global foreign exchange market, revealed in the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial FX survey last week, has painted a bright future ahead for forex market participants.
Oil woes hit yen
Neil Mellor, London-based analyst at Bank of New York points to the weakness of the Japanese market in the wake of high oil prices
NDFs for a company with operations in China
Clients based in one country with manufacturing bases in another are exposed to risk if the country of production’s currency appreciates. Here, Ashish Advani, director, risk solutions at Travelex in London, proposes a solution that hedges the risk using…
Currency derivatives turnover soars ahead
A marked feature of the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) latest triennial survey of the global FX markets is the massive surge in derivatives turnover.
US, UK and Australia win in global boom
The main winners in the booming global FX industry are those markets benefiting from control of the lion’s share of forex activity, soaring trade and commodity-related currency business – notably the UK, the US and Australia.
Lack of volatility in US/£ pair
There has been little divergence in views on cable over the last few weeks in the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, reflecting lack of volatility in the currency pair.
The 'triple-currency wedding cake deposit'
The past year has seen a dramatic surge in the use of FX-linked yield-enhancement products. Generally, these products fall into two categories: dual-currency redemption engineered by the sale of an option; and range-enhanced coupons that contain embedded…
ABN Amro revises forecasts
ABN Amro is among the banks revising currency forecasts in response to an increasingly bearish outlook for the dollar.
Trading volumes surge on rupiah volatility
JAKARTA – Trade volumes in the Indonesian rupiah surged by around 50% when markets reopened following the presidential elections last week.
FX majors unmoved by stronger capex
The capital expenditure recovery is unlikey to shake FX majors from their limited volatility, says Darragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Calyon
Making the most of upcoming volatility
For the currency overlay manager looking to take advantage of a burst of market volatility at the start of the fourth quarter, Simon Derrick, head of Bank of New York's currency strategy team, describes a simple, low-cost way for them to express their…
Late summer lull aids accuracy
The FX markets are experiencing a late-summer lull, as the major currency pairs continue trading in the tight ranges in which they have been stuck for the past few months. That inactivity has fed through to the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, with very…
Preparing for a break from range trading
Markets have been fairly flat over recent months. How can options traders make the most of this, and how should they prepare for a break from range? By Cornelius Luca, FX Concepts' New York-based head of client advisory for the Americas
Hedge funds to rethink strategy
LONDON – Large numbers of hedge funds drawn to the FX market over the past year are likely to modify trend-driven FX trading, after being stung by heavy losses this year.
FX policy has worked, says RBA
CANBERRA – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has succeeded in its aim of stabilising the Australian dollar through intervention in the currency markets, it said last week.
Asian currencies bounce back after price hit
HONG KONG – Asian currencies have bounced back after taking a hit from the high price of raw materials, particularly oil, in recent weeks.
Ringgit revaluation looms
A change in the Malaysian ringgit's peg to the dollar is likely, despite the Malaysian authorities' protestations that this will not happen, says David Mann, Standard Chartered's senior FX strategist in London
HSBC launches charting package on FXall
LONDON – HSBC has launched a free online FX charting package on multi-bank portal FXall's website, covering 15 major cross rates. The service, fxcharting@hsbc, is white-labelled from UK-based charting provider TraderMade.
Non-bank players take the lead
Analysts at banks are lagging behind in FX forecasting, according to the Currency Forecasts Index. Trading firms are in both top spots on the year-to-date index, while research firm 4Cast is this week's best three-month forecaster.
Former Soviet satellites' FX interest increasing
ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN – The FX market for the states surrounding Russia has picked up in recent years due to liberalisation of capital and increasing international trade.