Trading
Property pressures the pound
As UK property price growth slows, investors are moderating their view on the Bank of England tightening cycle. This could add to sterling weakness, says Adam Myers at SG CIB in London
Consistency offers rewards
Few forecasters have been successful at both one-month and three-month currency forecasting over the past three months, our Index reveals. Only Westpac (top three-month forecaster and 10th place one-month forecaster) and Bank of Nova Scotia (6th place…
Dollar set to depreciate
Net capital inflows will exceed the US current account deficit over the next year, prompting dollar depreciation to begin again, says Jay Bryson, economics analyst at Wachovia Bank in Charlotte, North Carolina
HSBC reverses its fortunes
HSBC, which last month was languishing near the bottom of the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, is this week the top one-month forecaster. The bank's aggregated majors forecasts, submitted May 21 and tested against spot on June 21, were out by just over…
How to make yen gains amid intervention fears
A currency overlay manager may wish to take advantage of fresh yen strength without being exposed to the impact of renewed intervention. Simon Derrick, head of Bank of New York's currency strategy team, describes a simple, low-cost way to express this…
Tax bill to bring the dollars home
NEW YORK – A new tax bill in the US that is likely to herald a massive repatriation of funds into the country could spell a 5%–10% hike for the dollar, according to one scenario model from Dutch bank ABN Amro.
Boosting dollar returns during euro strength
To boost returns on a US dollar deposit in a bullish euro environment, a European exporter would be wise to consider an FX tarn with conversion, says Christophe Bouculat, senior FX structurer at Calyon in Paris
Year of plenty for top 30 banks
Little evidence of mid-tier contraction as revenue ranking hits new high
Micex expands forex coverage
MOSCOW – The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (Micex) has launched new FX contracts in a step towards expanding the exchange-traded FX market in Russia.
Yen volatility returns in MoF absence
TOKYO – Traders in Japan are reporting a healthy return to yen volatility following the Japanese Ministry of Finance's (MoF) withdrawal from currency intervention in mid March.
Consensus forecasts win out
Consensus forecasts are commonly seen as a reliable indicator of future currency moves, and our Currency Forecasts Index proves this – to a degree.
Kiwi ripens against Aussie
The New Zealand dollar is rising against the Aussie in line with interest rate differentials. But potential growth in Australia may cap its gains, says Sue Trinh, currency strategist at the Bank of New Zealand in Wellington
Election uncertainty hits Phillippine peso trading
MANILA – Market participants in the Philippines are anticipating a return to volatility in the next few weeks, as uncertainty over the recent elections clears up.
Swissie rise snares forecasters
Dollar/Swiss was the most difficult currency pair to forecast over the past month, as the Swissie's 5% rise against the greenback took it from 1.3019 on May 7 to 1.2370 on June 7. Average % accuracy on one-month forecasts submitted by the 38 banks on our…
Improver knock-in forward for dollar bears
With the widely held belief that dollar/yen has scope to fall much further, Royal Bank of Canada's financial engineering team in London proposes a solution for a client wanting to buy US dollar forwards at more attractive rates. An 'improver knock-in…
An obsession with oil
Swiss franc, Norwegian krone and euro gains may be about to reverse, says Steven Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS Treasury Services in London
Snow hails CME's China deal
CHICAGO – The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has forged a ground- breaking deal with a central bank-sponsored FX trading platform in China, in a move hailed by US government officials as a crucial step towards renminbi flexibility.
EBS launches Aussie and Canadian trading packages
LONDON – Spot broker EBS last week launched new Australian and Canadian dollar packages for its dealing platform in a bid to increase market-share in those currencies.
Japan's MoF steers clear of intervention
TOKYO – Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) last week revealed it has not intervened in the FX markets since mid-March – and is likely to refrain from further currency intervention for some time, said market participants.
Volatility troubles traders
High intra-day volatility is making life difficult for forex traders, says Shahab Jalinoos, senior FX strategist at ABN Amro in London
RBS is top 12m forecaster
Forecasting currency moves over a 12-month horizon is a difficult discipline. In addition to negotiating unexpected economic data, interest rate differentials and trader psychology, the successful forecaster must also contend with geopolitical risks - a…
Long-term solution for dollar/rupee liability
With the Indian rupee rising and a low federal funds rate, Amit Bansal, head of treasury at Barclays Capital in Mumbai, proposes a solution for a corporate to take advantage of the inverted swap points
ACI Congress debates future
LONDON – The European forex community gathered in London last week for the ACI European Congress hosted by ACI UK. Among the contentious issues discussed during the three-day event were operational risk, the future of the European Union and trading in…
Oil troubles yen forecasting
Yen was the most troublesome currency to forecast throughout May, as the soaring cost of oil hit oil consumer Japan’s unit – and with it, yen forecasting accuracy.