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When size matters
Political risk is not a factor sterling has had to contend with recently, but the UK's general election on May 5 might see this change, says Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Calyon in London
Lloyds wins out on dollar decline
Lloyds TSB tops the 12-month ranking again as it maintains its view that the dollar will continue to decline given the US deficit situation.
What is the fate of the greenback?
Corporates need to be aware of the likely fate of the dollar. Simon Miles (below), head of dealing at London-based foreign exchange brokerage CorporateFX, points to economic policies leading to another bubble, and says the authorities need to do more to…
Reasons for rand depreciation
Tania Kotsos, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC, highlights the reasons why the South African rand should weaken over the next 12–18 months
Ruble and NOK benefit from high oil price
OSLO – The strong oil price has led to strength in currencies such as the Norwegian krone and the Russian ruble, as exporting nations benefit from strong revenue flows.
Behind the dollar rebound
MG Financial tops this week's three-month YTD forecast by looking for dollar-corrective moves, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial in New York.
BarCap forecasts mid-year RMB peg change
BEIJING – Barclays Capital is forecasting a mid-year change to the renminbi (RMB) peg, the bank announced at its global FX conference in the Chinese capital last Friday.
Korean banks report mixed FX results
SEOUL – Korean banks reported strong revenues from their FX business in 2004, with one bank seeing a rise of more than 40%.
INR – everything is relative
The INR’s over-extended valuation against the Reserve Bank of India’s REER implicit policy anchor continues. This over-extension is looking anomalous against the continued backdrop of Asian FX selling. Claudio Piron, Asian FX strategist at JP Morgan in…
Rabobank’s bullish dollar view pays dividends
Rabobank came top of the three-month forecast thanks to a bullish view on the dollar. The Dutch bank posted a forecast of 1.28 for the euro/dollar pair, slightly below the actual rate of 1.2923. Only one other bank forecast the greenback to be stronger…
EM currency volatility to continue
CENTRAL EUROPE – Volatility in emerging market FX has surged as market participants gauge the impact of improving US fundamentals, which resulted in a 25 basis point rate hike last week, according to analysts.
4Cast rides out dollar corrections
Chris Furness, senior currencies strategist at 4Cast in London, says resisting the temptation to chase prevailing spot rates into the longer term allowed 4Cast to top the one-month and 12-month forecasts.
Keeping a steady ringgit
Deeds speak stronger than words when it comes to the Malaysian ringgit, says Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, emerging markets strategist at Barclays Capital in Singapore
Emerging market opportunities
There are more options in emerging markets than you might think, says Scott Wacker (below), global head, client risk advisory and sales, ABN Amro in London
Oil price threat to the dollar
With FX reserves diversification and higher oil prices hitting the headlines, Simon Derrick at the Bank of New York in London discusses the potential impact on the dollar
Record start for US investment banks
NEW YORK – This year looks set to be another bumper year for FX, with a second consecutive year of record-breaking first- quarter results from the US investment banks.
FXCM's three-pronged approach
Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) has topped the three-month forecast using a combination of fundamental, technical and market indicators in its analysis, said chief strategist in New York, Kathy Lien.
Saxo loyal to bearish view
Saxo Bank tops the three-month index for the fourth consecutive week, thanks to its continued bearish dollar outlook, said John Hardy, FX strategist at Saxo in Copenhagen.
Volkswagen hit by strong euro
WOLFSBURG – Volkswagen (VW) took an e800 million exchange rate hit to operating profits in 2004, with US sales dealt a significant blow from the strong euro.
Fade-out zero-cost collar for hedgers
Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed a EUR/USD spot consolidation below 1.37. Also, the last move from 1.2700 took EUR-USD up to the middle of the range 1.27 / 1.37. Many USD buyers are therefore looking to zero-cost collars, one of the…
Asia shies away from dollar bloc
Basel – Asian currencies are not trading as a dollar bloc, said the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in its quarterly review last week.
EBS opens to investor community
LONDON – EBS is launching its buy-side offering this week following a successful pilot with nine banks that has been running since November.
Norway looks to higher prices
The Norwegian government is pursuing policies to drive prices higher while expressing a desire for a weaker currency, says Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York in London
A broader view than the yuan
While much attention is focused on a likely shift in the value of China’s currency, Ashish Advani (right), director of risk solutions at Travelex in Toronto, points to a way of hedging against the more imminent risk of free-floating Asian currency…