Opinion

Why the consensus is wrong on USD/JPY

RBC Capital Markets has taken a contrarian view on the yen for several years, predicting it would strengthen against the US dollar while the consensus forecast was for yen strength. After the bank’s contrarian view has proved accurate, Adam Cole argues…

Exploring relative value

A rebound in risk assets in late October appears to have been short-lived and the foreign exchange market continues to be affected by lower-then-expected growth and a swinging pendulum between risk-on and risk-off. Callum Henderson argues relative value…

Analysis paralysis

Ever-increasing foreign exchange volumes, acute volatility in currencies and the imminent arrival of new trading regulations have combined to create an environment in which being able to properly analyse execution costs and quality is more important than…

A tax too far?

The European Commission's recent proposal to impose a financial transaction tax from 2014 appears to ignore lessons learned in drafting other recent regulations

Fighting a losing battle on yen strength

Despite repeated intervention by the Bank of Japan over the past year, the yen remains stronger than ever, with USD/JPY struggling to break above 77. Derek Halpenny analyses the three episodes of intervention and related data to explain why intervention…

No more lifelines for Greece

Following a chaotic series of last-ditch efforts by political leaders to put together a solution to the troubles in the eurozone, Nick Beecroft believes the only viable option left is to transfer cash from the core of Europe to the periphery, through the…

The rise and rise of retail FX

Questions were raised in July when the Bank of England’s FX joint standing committee revealed a jaw-dropping 23% increase in UK turnover between October 2010 and April 2011. Among a number of drivers contributing to the increase, the most notable is the…

Trading like it’s 2008

Foreign exchange markets in 2011 continue to show parallels to 2008, but the economy is unlikely to slip back into recession and Asian currencies look set to benefit from broad-based US dollar selling. Callum Henderson looks at the key similarities…

More upside in the Aussie dollar

Paul Bednarczyk, head of currency strategy at 4Cast in London, looks at the steady rise of the Australian dollar since 2008 and explains why it might yet appreciate further

The DTCC's repository monopoly

June in perspective: trade repositories take centre stage as FX participants prepare for a mandatory requirement to report trades to a central infrastructure

Making the case for Asian currencies

Callum Henderson, global head of FX research at Standard Chartered in Singapore, believes Asia is better insulated from the economic downturn than in previous cycles and investors should maintain allocations to the region’s currencies

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