Trend following struggles to return to vogue
Macro outlook for trend appears to be favourable, but 2023’s performance flop gives would-be investors pause for thought
For quant investors, a bimodal distribution in data is often a good thing – pointing to a sharp distinction between two possible outcomes, a clear signal, in other words. Except when the binary split occurs among the signals themselves.
Since late 2022, US macro indicators have been disagreeing in just such a way. In the US, for example, the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard has been stuck in a recessionary red-zone for well over a year. Six of its 12 recession indicators, including job
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact customer services - www.fx-markets.com/static/contact-us, or view our subscription options here: https://subscriptions.fx-markets.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact customer services - www.fx-markets.com/static/contact-us to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@fx-markets.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@fx-markets.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@fx-markets.com
More on Trading
Pimco and Vanguard slash FX forwards trading with BNP Paribas
Counterparty Radar: French bank sees its notional volumes with mutual funds halve
Profit and pain as macro turmoil engulfs Brazil
FX options trades pay off, while sharp jump in rates caught traders by surprise
Repo and FX markets buck year-end crunch fears
Price spike concerns ease as September’s surprise SOFR jump led to early preparations for bank window dressing
Quants mine gold for new market-making model
Novel approach to modelling cointegrated assets could be applied to FX and potentially even corporate bond pricing
Bilateral streaming relationships set to grow, say LPs
FX Markets Europe: More clients are embracing APIs to access bank liquidity directly
Buy-siders call for FX options workflow overhaul
FX Markets Europe: Traders say electronification of FX options is still lagging
FX options market eyes Trump inauguration trades
FX Markets Europe: Traders turn to short-dated plays on cabinet picks and early tariff actions
Higher rates see corporates reassess FX structured products
Treasurers are getting a taste for dual currency notes and structured forwards
