ACI heads for Manila, but will anyone else?

To hold such an event in a country that is notorious for political instability does, on the face of it, seem somewhat ill-thought-out. The current turmoil in the nation's political scene has brought the country into the media spotlight for all the wrong reasons.

Those delegates who have signed up for the event are no-doubt wondering whether they should bring a bulletproof jacket and hijack insurance. Images of options traders being gagged and blindfolded by armed and angry insurgents are probably making heads of foreign exchange wonder about the wisdom of sending them to the junket.

Also, many more industry members who would gladly have gone to a less risky destination, such as Korea or Malaysia, simply won't show up.

This is a shame. The ACI event in Beirut in 2003 was by all accounts a success for all concerned. But it would have been even better had people taken less notice of the region's reputation as a war-torn Middle East no-go zone. As is the case in the Philippines, the hype did not live up to the rather more hum-drum reality. Conversely, the London event held in the world capital of forex was a flop. Traders didn't want to lose a valuable day's business to cross from Canary Wharf to the West End to see people they see regularly anyway, speak on a topic they are already familiar with.

The fact that the peso had, at time of writing, actually appreciated in the face of the barrage of media headlines talking of impending political meltdown gives us a clue. In the past, the market has been, with some very notable exceptions, a very good judge of what is going on behind the headlines. A currency going up in value is a fairly good indication that in the medium term the economy is in pretty good shape.

It is entirely understandable that the FX industry feels a degree of trepidation about packing its bags and going into what could conceivably be a country that descends into civil war. However, the chances are that the event will pass off incident free, and those who do take the risk and fly in to Manila are likely to have a rewarding and fruitful time.