Riding the US recession
The latest Reuters poll of economists puts the probability of the US slipping into recession this year at 45%, while the financial bookies' current prices imply a 65% risk. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's most recent assessment put the risk of recession at "at least 50%". As the consensus view on the US economy creeps towards a period of falling output, what can we say about currencies? Is the understandable knee-jerk reaction to short the US dollar the right one?
The past, of course, is not
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