Rallying euro benefits Scotia Capital

CURRENCY FORECASTS

Scotia Capital did not believe strong US data, received at the beginning of the year, was representative of the health of the underlying US economy. Accordingly, Sutton and Malyon felt there was an opportunity for the euro to rally off its lows, once more moderate data releases resurfaced.

By the end of January, the December Fed Funds future contract had risen 30 basis points to 5.15, reflecting the market's view that the probability of a 2007 Fed cut had dramatically declined. "Our belief was

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