The forint faces an imminent setback

MARKET VOICE

Hungary just finished an annus horribilis. But one wouldn't know it by looking at the forint, which appreciated more than 11% against the euro in the second half of 2006. Almost half of that was registered during the political crisis in the autumn. We think the forint is literally on borrowed time, and vulnerable to a serious setback in the coming months.

On the surface, the outlook for the forint looks bright, but much positive news has been priced in. The government's austerity plan moved the

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