Central bank financing down

Foreign official purchases of Treasuries, as a percentage of the monthly US trade deficit, tend to pick up when the dollar is under pressure. However, notable exceptions in 2003 were the politically charged period around the September Dubai meeting and also December, when foreign official purchases of Treasuries only covered around a quarter of the monthly US trade deficit. Those two months saw exceptionally heavy dollar losses.

Using the Fed’s weekly custody holdings release as a guide for the

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