SEB: growth and commodity prices are key for emerging markets
If growth continues to slow, the EM FX sell-off will be prolonged
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Further signs of a global economic slowdown and lower commodity prices would weigh more on emerging markets currencies than a limited-scale trade war, says Per Hammarlund, chief EM strategist at SEB.
The US-China trade war materialised in a first round of tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on July 6, followed by a second round on $16 billion of imports. Intensifying trade tension is, however, only a “contributing factor” in the weakness of EM currencies
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